The FAW Consultation Documentation Document for the Seasons 2008-2012 sets out a proposed new Pyramid System for Welsh Football with a strategy of the WPL reducing its membership to two leagues of 10 clubs each by the start of the 2009/2010 season.   This top level “should reflect the semi-professional game at the national level” based on clubs which meet the FAW Club Licence System and league position.

In trying to envisage what this new era of semi-professional football in Wales will produce I have taken a snapshot of the Welsh Premier League as at Monday 1st December, 2008 and looked at extracts involving some clubs who are currently in the top ten of the current league and would form the proposed Welsh Premier League.   This information is produced by www.statto.com (the place to go for football stats and odds comparison-English and Scottish stats from 1871 plus European and International).

 Based on performances against the teams that are top of the table, the positions are:

                  5th Carmarthen

                  7th Aberystwyth

                  13th Haverfordwest

 

Based on performances against teams that are in the bottom half  of the table the positions are:

                 3rd Haverfordwest

                 5th Aberystwyth

                 7th Carmarthen

     

Based on Match Statistics supplied by Roy Morris for the Premier League match v Caernarfon on 15th November, 2008 who were lying bottom of the League Haverfordwest scored one goal from 15  shots (6.7% success) compared with Caernarfon scoring one goal from  7 shots (14% success).   Despite this statistically poor performance Haverfordwest are rated as 3rd amongst clubs who have played teams in the lower half of the table.

This set of statistics show that Haverfordwest might have difficulty retaining a position in the top ten when meeting teams more highly placed than them, but would probably be in a top position when playing the clubs lower in the league.

What these statistics cannot predict is the outcome of a run of wins against teams higher in the league or poor results against teams in the lower half of the table.

My opinion is that  a league comprising ten elite clubs with the aim of producing a better standard of football,  will result in a less adventurous style of play to that which the spectators are used,  with final positions being decided very much by goal difference.

Author: B. Steer

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